Bold KONA Predictions – The Women

By The Crushing Iron Coach

For die hard triathletes this is the equivalent of Super Bowl week.  All the hoopla and excitement culminates Saturday in Kailua Kona, Hawaii with the Ironman World Championships.

Triathletes all over the world will post up in front of their laptops to watch the world’s best compete.

Predicting the podium at Kona, and even the top 10 (OUT OF ORDER!) for that matter is a lot like filling out your bracket for the Final Four. Your chances are about zero.

Personally, I am more intrigued and excited to follow the women’s race this year than any other year in the past.  If you have not taken the time to familiarize yourself with the contenders here is a little cheat sheet for Saturday and some bold predictions on finishing order.

Feel free to weigh in on your podium predictions with the #CrushingKona!

PREDICTION:  THE TOP 10 WOMEN AT KONA

1.  Daniela Ryf, 27 Switzerland @danielaryf

The 2014 70.3 World Champion. Daniela Ryf is still not a household name after taking the win at 70.3 Worlds last month but she will likely change all of that on Saturday. Ryf comes into Kona unbeaten this year and with the guidance and coaching of Bret Sutton she will be prepared both mentally and physically. With her ITU background she will be racing at the front as soon as the gun goes off. Winning on the Big Island on your first attempt is almost sacrilegious, until Chrissie Wellington did it. We all know how that turned out. Leanda Cave pulled off the 70.3/Kona double in 2012 and I think Ryf has all of the tools to pull off her own. Calm. Cool. Collected. I see Ryf taking her first of many Kona crowns on Saturday and a legend begins.

2.  Jodie Swallow, 33, Great Britain @jodieswallow

Is this the year for Swallow? Coming off a 2nd place finish at 70.3 Worlds last month Jodie Swallow comes into Kona in excellent form. Im still not sure why she does not get more attention and maybe that has to due with her injury plagued 2013. Who knows? What I do know is the that you can bet she will be at the pointy end of the field All. Day. Long. I predict she will be leading the main pack on the bike for the majority of the day and will do the lion’s share of the work to put a large gap on the “runners” of the field. She is one of my favorite athletes to follow and I think she finally nails it in Kona coming in 2nd.

3.  Leanda Cave, 36, Great Britain @leandacave

*Disclaimer– This pick is probably heart over head. 

After an injury plagued 2013, Leanda Cave seems to be rounding into form at just the right time. She is coming off a solid win (validating her Kona spot) at Ironman Sweden and a very sharp looking win at Cozumel 70.3 in Kona-like conditions. She has proven she knows what it takes to crack the “Kona code” and I think she comes into this race with a chip on her shoulder. The video of her finishing Kona last year a disappointing 12th, stood out most to me. It was a long year for her and you could tell she hated not being at the top. I think she races with revenge on her mind and snags a podium spot at 3rd.

4.  Mirinda Carfrae, 33, Australia @Mirindacarfrae

The defending champ with quite possibly the most beautiful run stride on the planet is the heavy favorite to repeat this year and although it wouldn’t shock me one bit if she ran her way through the field again this year, I have my doubts putting her a top the podium. She most likely will not make the first pack out of the water and thus miss the “freight train” out to Hawi. If the forecast holds it will be very hot and windy and possibly lonely for Rinny as she pushes to give up as little time as possible. She can probably afford to give up 10-14 minutes on the leaders but I dont think she cuts it this year. Rinny finishes just off the podium in 4th.

5.  Heather Wurtele, 35, Canada @TeamWurtele

Full disclaimer, I have zero objectivity on this one. No one in the women’s field seems to conduct herself better on and off the course than this towering Canadian. She is talented and always races smart. In Kona, patience and intelligence can trump fitness and talent on the world’s biggest stage. Wurtele showed last month at 70.3 Worlds she can race with this best and sent a message with her excellent run split. Im not convinced this is her year to crack the top 3 BUT she will be prepared, race smart and I hope she rounds out the top 5. There is nothing to not like about this pro so do yourself a favor and pull for her on Saturday. I know I will.


6.  Rachel Joyce, 36, Great Britain @RJoyce09

 

7.  Meredith Kessler, 36, USA @mbkessler

 

8.  Corinne Abraham, 37, Great Britain @CorinneAbraham

 

9.  Caroline Steffen, 36, Switzerland @Caroline_Xena

 

10.  Liz Blatchford, 34, Great Britain @Liz_Blatchford

Kona Start List 

5 Winning Insights for Kona from My Neighbor James

If you follow the blog, you know that my neighbor James has been a huge inspiration in my triathlon “success” over the last year, especially leading up to IM Wisconsin.  He always knows how to cut through the BS and get to the real point.  Last night, we were hanging out front and I asked him if he had any advice he could pass along to the athletes doing the Ironman World Championship in Kona.  He didn’t miss a beat. 

Guest Blog – by my Neighbor James

Look, Mike, I ain’t never been to Fiji or whatever, but competition is always spelled the same..  I been through it, bro… basketball, street fights, spellin bees, winnin ova my lil lady…  Ya feel me?  I got 5 things I always tell people like yaself and you can pass em to ya friends on the internet or Twitter or whatever the hell you do when u ain’t mowin’ ya yard.

First thing you gotta know is who you is….  If you Michael Jordan, everybody gonna be watchin.  If you John Paxson, they gonna fall asleep on u.  If you Jordan, you gotta do what you do, and shit gonna come all natural. but if you Paxson, you gotta be patient… that shot gonna come… just make sure ya ass ready.

Two.  Like dude said in Hoosiers… a Basketball court is a basketball court.  Rims the same height and you playin on wood.  Unless u grew up in my hood… and I ain’t lyin, Mike, we played on grass… but no matta… you all got the same damn court so quit talkin bout the track.

Three.  Man, I been on the beach before and u got young women all up in ya face wit them bikinis tryin to get you off ya game.  All I got to say to that is, the beach still gonna be there after u run that damn race.

Four.  Mike, I don’t care who you is, you gotta understand the game.  Man, Yogi Berra said 90% of the game is half mental and dude himself is mental, but he right as hell.  Hear me?  Cause when you up against dudes you know as good as you, talent ain’t got nothin’ to do with it.  Everybody get tired, and feel that pain, but if you don’t stop at the drug store, u gonna get home faster.

And Five.  If I was gonna look you in the eye and tell you, or James Jr. what it take to win, it would be this…  You know how sometimes you get to the place you goin and forget how you got there, or why you there in the first place?  Don’t do that shit.  Remember, man.  You came all this way and just gonna show up on some sand and forget bout that time you was in the rain thinkin bout the sand?  Man, think about the rain cuz that’s how you got ya ass on the sand.

So drop that in the bank and leave it in there till you ready to retire ya ass on a beach for a different reason.

Why I Don't Watch the NFL

I used to love the NFL.  I was an improbable (and scorned) Vikings’ fan growing up in Wisconsin.

My best friend had just moved in from Minnesota and we spent hours upon hours running around in the backyard impersonating Fran Tarkington and the Purple People Eaters.  We were purple, man.  And maybe that’s why I love Prince so much, too.

I had all the gear.  The jersey, helmet, blanket, slippers, you name it, and I could not wait until Sunday.  It was easier for me to like the Vikings because they were good.  Back then the Packers stunk.

But, as good as they were, the Vikings lost sometimes.  It would crush me.  I would be so bummed I’d sit in my room the rest of the day.  It was bad.  And, you may know, the Vikings have lost FIVE Super Bowls.  I wouldn’t come out for days after those losses.

Eventually, I realized this was not a healthy practice and started questioning why I would care so much about an NFL team.  It didn’t make sense really.  I didn’t know any of the players, they didn’t call Minnesota (or Wisconsin for that matter) home, and they all made tons of money to play a game I played all weekend for free.

As I got older, I watched how other grown men acted watching their team.  They were just so vested in the games, and a loss seemed to literally take a piece of their souls.  I’ve even heard the mood in our nation’s capitol, the home to leaders of the free world, is dramatically affected by a Redskin’s win or loss.  People obviously care about their teams!

I still like college sports, but have to admit even that is waning.  Triathlon has had a direct impact on what I find important, and I’ve decided wasting my entire weekend celebrating corpse pose and watching football isn’t one of those things.  I still care about the Badgers, but the fact that they already have two losses has far less bearing on my mood.

Essentially it’s the difference between a passive and active life.

I haven’t always led by example, but truly believe the purpose in life is to learn and grow.  Without a goal or passion driving that process it’s easy to get caught in the trap of fading away; and for me that means living with guilt.

Today, I was flipping through the radio on my way home and landed on a sports talk station.  Some guy called in and was asking a question about the Titans, but he prefaced it by saying how depressed he gets when they lose.  “I stumble around the house for three or four days all bummed out.”  The hosts, and even he, started laughing, but I thought it was sad.  The Titans should have nothing to do with him, but the outcome of their games dictates how he feels.

So instead of watching football this Sunday, I will be swimming, biking, and running for 70.3 miles, and it will likely hurt.  But I will be alive.  I will be surrounded by people who would rather push their limits and “feel” life instead of sitting on a couch getting numb.

That said, I will likely spend a good chunk of Saturday in front of the computer watching the Ironman Kona World Championships, but I’m pretty sure that will have a different impact on my attitude.

Making Ironman Predictions

I know it’s not accurate (technically it’s 60 days) but my “countdown clock” for Ironman Wisconsin just flipped to “1 month” and there is something about the number one that is very small and lonely. 

Image

Muncie 70.3 is this weekend, then IMWI will have 100 percent of my focus for nearly two months.  I’ll likely do the Music City Olympic Triathlon, but hopefully that will feel like a “nice little workout” by then.   

Back in January, I remember saying, “It will be here before you know it,” but I don’t think I really believed that.  Something about seeing that number 1 on my blog tonight woke me out of a Tour de France time-trial-slumber.  Wisconsin is closing in quickly. 

I’m still not ready to make any predictions.  I jostle between lofty goals and just finishing.  Both are very delectable in their own ways. 

I just started reading Chris McCormack’s book, “I’m Here To Win,” and in the first Chapter he recounts the cocky attitude he brought to his first Kona race when he uttered the words that became the title of his book.  He was a competitor, and truly thought he would win.  But other athletes and those close to the Ironman World Championship black-balled the pesky rookie because he didn’t respect the race. 

He had a decent swim, led off the bike, then burned to dust on the run.  Here was one of the best short triathlon racers in the world, recent Ironman Australia winner, and he couldn’t finish Kona.  These are the lessons I try to remember every day.  If Ironman does anything, it makes you vulnerable. 

So, with 60 days before the event that has dominated a large chunk of my brain for nearly a year, the only option I have is to stay focused, trust the process, and keep working.